Truck tonnage readings tick up in August, reports ATA

Truck tonnage readings were up in August, according to data issued this week by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

The ATA’s advanced Seasonally Adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index for August—at 110.3 (2015=100)—headed up 0.5, following a 1.2% July decline.

On an annual basis, August’s SA tonnage reading dropped 0.5%, marking its second annual decline going back to March (along with July). On a year-to-date basis through August, it is off 0.2%.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment and the metric ATA says fleets should benchmark their levels with, for August, was 114.5 (2015=100), topping July by 2.2%.

“August’s monthly gain, while small, was the first since March,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “It is important to remember that ATA’s tonnage data is dominated by for-hire contract freight, with a very limited amount of spot market freight. I continue to believe that tonnage has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels for two main reasons—broader supply chain issues, like semiconductor shortages, as well as industry specific difficulties, including the driver shortage and lack of equipment. Despite some supply chain issues, demand remains strong for trucking services generally. Truckload carriers are operating fewer trucks than a year earlier, which makes it difficult to increase freight volumes significantly.”

Avery Vise, vice president of trucking for freight consultancy FTR, recently told LM that market conditions are likely at or near the peak of their favorability for truckload carriers, but the slope on the downside of that peak is uncertain.

“The pandemic has created unprecedented situations on both the demand and capacity sides of the ledger, and the range of plausible outcomes remains quite broad,” he said. “Enormous levels of stimulus from Washington have fueled a buying spree the likes of which we have never seen, especially in durable goods. One scenario is that spending on goods crashes in 2022 or 2023, especially if inflation continues. However, while growth in freight demand almost certainly has peaked, unprecedented levels of consumer savings and debt retirement could maintain a solid floor on freight volume. Pandemic-related constraints on driver capacity might make it harder than usual to bring demand and capacity into balance, but nobody truly knows how many drivers have left the market permanently.”