First quarter intermodal volumes show ongoing gains, reports IANA

First quarter 2021 intermodal volumes saw strong across-the-board gains, due, in part, to annual comparisons impacted by the impact of the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Intermodal Quarterly report, which was recently issued by the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA).

Total first quarter volume—at 4,616,262 units—was up 10.5% annually. Trailers—at 309,274—were up 20% annually, and domestic containers—at 1,944,262—headed up 4.4%. And the all domestic equipment category, which is comprised of trailer and domestic containers, saw a 6.3% increase, to 2,253,536. ISO, or international containers, rose 14.8%, to 2,362,726.

The 10.5% annual gain marked the third consecutive quarter of gains, as well as the largest quarterly annual gain going back to the fourth quarter of 2013, according to IANA. And it added that on a seasonally-adjusted basis, total first quarter volumes were off 0.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020, which IANA said was expected, with intermodal volumes typically lower in the first quarter because of the timing of the holiday season. It also pointed out that the harsh winter weather in February negatively impacted volumes and resulted in operational shutdowns.

When looking at the annual comparisons for the equipment metrics it tracks, IANA observed that while ISO volumes were up 14.8%, they were down 11.3% for the first quarter of 2020, with trailers up 23.3% but up against a 23.3% decline for the same period a year ago. Domestic containers were not impacted to the same degree, as they rose 2.2% in the first quarter of 2020.

When asked if the current level of strong trailer growth is sustainable in the coming quarters, IANA President and CEO Joni Casey told LM that while that is expected to be the case, the annual comparisons mask a long-term decline.

“Volumes are significantly below 2018 levels and are not anticipated to surpass 2019 levels,” said Casey.

Looking at the impact of tight truck driver capacity and high driver utilization, which has not eased in 2021, Casey pointed out that active truck utilization was above 98% in the first quarter, the highest since the second quarter of 2018. 

“This coupled with the volume of freight moving through the supply chain are the primary drivers for intermodal volume gains,” she said. “High truck utilization and tight driver capacity benefitted domestic intermodal in the first quarter, but so did imports volumes, which were then transloaded. Both are expected to continue in the coming quarters.”

Looking at the intersection of the ongoing congestion issues at West Coast ports and the pace of growth for domestic containers, Casey explained that port congestion impacts both domestic and international volumes.

“On the other hand, domestic containers were the one segment that did not gain from weak year-over-year comparisons,” she said. “Adjusting for that, their performance was relatively strong in the first quarter.”

In the report, IANA described the outlook for intermodal growth over the balance of 2021 to be “robust,” driven by weak comparisons and an improving economic outlook. Looking at the different equipment segments it forecasted the following:

• total volumes are expected to be up 6.3% in 2021, following a 2.0% decline in 2020;
• domestic container loads are pegged to increase between 5%-6%;
• trailer moves are expected to increase between 2%-3%; and
• ISO volumes are forecasted to see an 8% increased, paced by solid import growth

“Independent reporting anticipates high volumes into the fourth quarter alongside these catalysts,” said Casey. “That was the case in the first quarter.”