Port Tracker shows import growth but supply chain challenges are looming

United States retail container import levels are expected to remain elevated but may be in line for a decline, due to port congestion, according to the most recent edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“The cargo is there for larger gains at several ports but congestion issues are impacting fluid operations,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Ships will eventually get unloaded but the pressure is on for everyone to work together to get the containers out as quickly as possible. Retailers are doing whatever it takes to make sure shelves are well-stocked for the holidays, from bringing in merchandise earlier to chartering their own ships. Consumers should be able to find what they need, but it’s always safer to shop early than wait until the last minute.”

For August, the most recent month for which data is available, import volumes—at 2.27 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units)—rose 3.5% compared to July and are up 7.8% annually, while matching March as the second-highest volume month, going back to when NRF started collecting import data in 2002 (May 2021 remains the all-time highest-volume month, at 2.33 million TEU). August marks the beginning of the traditional Peak Season, with retailers stocking up for holiday merchandise, and, for this year, moving up shipments earlier in order to have needed available holiday season inventory on hand.

September imports were pegged at 2.25 million TEU, a 6.7% annual gain.

For the following months, Port Tracker issued the following projections:

• October, at 2.21 million TEU, for a 0.3% annual decrease, which would mark the first annual decline since July 2020;
• November at 2.16 million TEU, for a 2.9% increase;
• December, at 2.1 million TEU, for a 0.2% annual decrease;
• January 2022, at 2.17 million TEU, for a 5.7% annual decrease; and
• February 2022, at 1.9 million TEU, for a 1.4% annual increase

Total volume, for the first half of 2021, was up 35.6% annually, at 12.8 million TEU, and total 2021 volume is pegged at 26 million TEU, for an 18.1% annual increase. Should the 2021 estimate come to fruition, it would stand as a new record, coming in ahead of the previous record set in 2020, at 22 million TEU.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett did not pull any punches in assessing the current state of affairs, for logistics and supply chain, in the report, noting that myriad challenges remain fully intact and may be worsening, including port shutdowns in Asia to backed-up ships and shortages of U.S. truck drivers.

“There are few positive signs that the movement of consumer goods or the supply of inputs needed for industrial production is getting better,” he wrote.

What’s more, he pointed to global issues, including the ongoing semiconductor shortage that is hindering auto production and also pandemic-related port shutdowns in China and Vietnam leading to container ship congestion for ships waiting to unload cargo, as well as labor-related challenges. And he also cited a lack of congestion-related shipping capacity “on both sides of the Pacific,” with an estimated 10%-to-15% of global container ship capacity floating at anchor.

“Despite all this, demand remains strong as consumers continue to spend money on goods as the delta variant discourages them from traveling, dining out, or attending sports and entertainment events,” wrote Hackett. “The widespread shortages of daily necessities seen in the early days of the pandemic last year have yet to return, but some retailers have placed limits on some high-demand items.”