Tailwinds playing role in declining European port volumes, notes Global Port Tracker

Various tailwinds have played in role in declining port volumes out of Europe, according to the most recent edition of the “Global Port Tracker: European Trade Outlook,” by maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

Ports surveyed in the report include the six major container reports in North Europe: le Havre, Antwerp, Zeebrugge, Rotterdam, Bremen/Bremerhaven, and Hamburg.

The report said that based on preliminary figures total container volumes across the six ports fell by 77,000 (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), or 2.1%, to 3.60 million TEU, from November to December, while heading up 1.8% annually.    

Some of the report’s key takeaways included:

• total imports to Europe rose 16.6% in December, with a 17.1% gain in North Europe (up 7% annually), and a 15.7% annual gain in the Mediterranean and Black Sea region (up 4% annually);
• total exports from Europe were up 3% in December and were up 0.8% in North Europe (down 0.2% annually), as well as a 6.7% gain in the Mediterranean and Black Sea region (up 5.9% annually); 
• for 2018, the report said loaded incoming volumes across the North Range are projected to have posted a 4.3% increase, with loaded outgoing volumes forecasted to have grown 2.7%;
• also for 2018 total imports to Europe increased by 3.9%, with a 2.8% gain in North Europe and a 5.9% increase in the Mediterranean and Black Sea region; and
• exports were up 2.5% across Europe, with a 1.9% gain in North Europe and a 3.4% increase in the Mediterranean and Black Sea region

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that European political volatility is in a particularly precarious state now and it is impacting consumer confidence, which has had repercussions in demand, as evidenced by an 8% drop in European import volumes form July through November.

Addressing the European political viability, Hackett explained “European political parties are under pressure as a result of the mess that is Brexit and right-wing populism in many of the continental countries. We may be witnessing a realignment in politics that will have a profound effect on the post-World War II stability.”

What’s more, he said that over the last two years North European monthly port volumes have been in the 1.2 million TEU-to-1.4 million TEU range, except for February 2017, when volumes dipped to 1 million. And he said that this has largely been the case going back four years, with no discernible sign of a return to an expansionary period and is reflected on an economic basis, too, even without what he called the negative impact of the U.S. Trump Administration on the global economy.

“All the political and economic indicators point to the need for a time of reflection,” Hackett wrote. “Countries will become more inward looking and consumers more cautious, both of which suggest that demand for goods will likely be in the two percent growth range, and that is without a tariff war. Globalization is certainly under threat.”

The 2019 import forecast for North Europe is projected to increase by 2.2% to 16 million TEU, according to Hackett, with the export forecast for North Europe projected to increase by 1.7% to 13.7 million TEUs.