Preliminary October Class 8 orders are solid coming off of record September levels

Preliminary North American Class 8 net truck orders, for the month of October, continued to show significant gains, according to recent data respectively issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR and ACT Research, a provider of data and analysis for trucks and other commercial vehicles.

FTR reported that preliminary October North American Class 8 net orders—at 42,300 units—were below September’s preliminary record-high tally of 56,500. The firm said that this marked a 23% month-over-month decrease, while posting a 77% annual gain. FTR said that over the last 12 months, Class 8 orders totaled 271,000 units.

The firm said that October’s net orders continue to confirm that “there remains a tremendous amount of pent-up market replacement demand,” related to what it called a constricted production environment over the last two years, which has limited many fleets from replacing aged equipment.

“OEMs are now filling build slots well into Q2 and the early part of Q3 2023,” said Charles Roth, commercial vehicle analyst for FTR, in a statement. “Component shortages continue to be a week-to-week issue; however, the overall sentiment from manufacturers is optimistic that improvements will be made in the coming months and throughout the first half of next year. October was the turning point for the Class 8 market. While we face headwinds in the freight market, overall fleet sentiment remains optimistic. While some OEMs have indicated that they have implemented allocation plans for dealers, the retail channel is another segment of the market that has yet to be able to maintain sufficient levels of inventory due to the limited availability of supply.

Roth added that with two extremely strong months of net orders, there is the potential for a gradual decrease month over month in net orders between now and year-end.

ACT data: ACT reported that October preliminary North American Class 8 orders came in at 42,500 units, below September’s 53,700 units, which was also a new monthly high.

“The strength in orders reflects 1) OEMs having opened their order boards for 2023 more broadly, and 2) ongoing pent-up demand, with tailwinds from strong carrier profitability and elevated fleet age proving resilient,” said Eric Crawford, ACT’s Vice President and Senior Analyst, in a statement. “We continue to expect a freight recession, and an eventual economic recession (mild to medium in magnitude), but OEMs at this point have clear visibility to a strong 1H’23 (barring any unforeseen cataclysmic events).”