ATA data points to weather-driven tonnage declines for February

Harsh winter weather, in February, appears to be the culprit for lower truck tonnage readings, for the month, according data issued today by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

The ATA’s advanced Seasonally Adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index for February—at 110 (2015=100)—decreased 4.5%, from January to February, following a 1.4% (upwardly revised from an original reading of 1.4%), from December to January, which came in at 115.2.

On an annual basis, February’s SA tonnage reading was off 5.9%, which was steeper than January’s 1.6% annual decrease (downwardly revised from an original reading of a 2.1% decrease), with all of 2020 down 4% compared to 2019. ATA officials pointed out that its For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index “is dominated by contract freight as opposed to spot market freight.”

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment and the metric ATA says fleets should benchmark their levels with, came in at 99.4, which trailed January’s 107.9

“February’s drop was exacerbated, perhaps completely caused, by the severe winter weather that impacted much of the country during the month,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello, in a statement. “Many other economic indicators were also soft in February due to the bad storms, but I continue to expect a nice climb up for the economy and truck freight as economic stimulus checks are spent and more people are vaccinated.”

In a recent interview with LM, Costello explained that the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially early on, had a major impact on the trucking market, with a major rush on certain consumer staples like food and paper products prior to conditions plummeting around May 2020.

But by the middle of 2020 and into the fall he said conditions saw material improvements, due to things like increased e-commerce activity and people buying more goods than services.

“E-commerce is a big part of that,” he said. “And certain parts of trucking are up still despite the pandemic and is really related to the buying of consumer goods…certainly around e-commerce. Some of the freight volumes around single-family housing starts is strong, too. Temperature-controlled volumes related to restaurants is still off but related to grocery stores is way up. It has been unusual in that there have been different outcomes depending on which type of supply chains you are in and what type of freight you are hauling.”