Freight shipments and expenditures show gains in February, reports Cass Freight Index

Freight shipments and expenditures, for the month of February, posted annual and sequential gains, according to the new edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was published this week by Cass Information Systems.

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

The report’s shipment reading—at 1.130—increased 4.1% annually, trailing January’s 8.6% annual gain, and it was up 1.8% compared to January, while falling 3.2% compared to January on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis, which wiped out the SA 3% gain, from December to January. And the decline in the percentage growth rate of annual shipments was due, in large part, to the polar vortex event in mid-January, noted the report’s author Tim Denoyer, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst.

“[T]his slowdown reflects both the short-term weather effects and likely longer-lasting supply chain pain points, which are anticipated to slow the industrial recovery for a few months,” wrote Denoyer. “The significant supply chain issues will only temporarily belie the strong demand environment, and considerable acceleration in freight demand is still most likely. With much easier prior-year comparisons ahead, if the Cass shipments index just takes a normal seasonal pattern from here, it will be up over 25% y/y in Q2. On a two-year stacked basis, the Cass Shipments Index was still 5.6% below February 2019.”  

February expenditures—at 3.132—rose 16.9% annually, trailing January’s 19.5% annual gain, while rising 2.0% annually. On a SA basis, expenditures were off 1.7% compared, from January to February, compared to a 2.8% gain, from December to January.

February’s reading represented the second all-time record in the last three months, with Denoyer observing that lower volumes drove it down on a sequential basis, while “strong momentum” remained intact relating to freight rate trends.