DAT Truckload Volume Index sees mixed January results

Mixed results for truckload freight volumes and national average spot rates were the main themes of the January edition of the DAT Truckload Volume Index, which was issued this week by DAT Freight & analytics, an online marketplace for spot market truckload freight.

The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers. Overall, the index decreased 2.0% from December to January and was up 7.5% annually. 

DAT’s data found the following takeaways for January:

• the load-to-truck ratio for vans, at 4.3, was off from December’s 4.8 and was 10.4% lower from December to January while up 95% annually;
• January reached an inflection point, for the first time since July 2020, with contract rates now consistently higher than spot rates;
• the national spot van rate average, at $2.36 per mile, fell 11 cents compared to December and was up 49 cents annually, and the average linehaul van rate, which represents the total spot rate minus fuel surcharges, at $2.12, decreased from highs set at the end of 2020;
• spot reefer volumes were down 3.5% from December to January, and the national average spot reefer rate, at $2.61 per mile, fell 7 cents from December to January and was off 37 cents annually;
• the national flatbed load-to-truck ratio, at 47.9, marked its highest level since the summer of 2018;
• January flatbed volumes headed up 3% compared to December and were off 9.5% annually;
• the national average spot flatbed rate, at $2.50 per mile, was up 1 cent compared to December and up 33 cents annually

“Spot market volumes and rates fell from record-setting levels at the end of December and our models predict a continued decline into the second quarter,” said Ken Adamo, Chief of Analytics at DAT, in a statement. “The headwind of COVID-19 is mixing with the tailwinds of vaccine distribution and economic stimulus. There’s still uncertainty about whether consumers will continue to spend, what they’ll buy now and how networks will respond as e-commerce drives more final-mile delivery and fulfillment houses move closer to where customers live.”

In a recent interview with LM, Adamo said that leading up to the holidays, in the third quarter, one thing that became apparent was a notion that that the extent to which things become oversold, or overbought, as they relate to rates and volume, could “violently correct” in the first quarter, which is what has happened in the first quarter, to date.

What’s more, he said DAT is seeing it occur across two distinct groups.

• Shippers had a lot of RFPs late in the third quarter and throughout the fourth quarter, with those rates now making their way into routing guides, with contract rates and volumes up (but somewhat softer than expected); and
• Carriers are in a more precarious position, in that those exposed to contract carriers are in a good spot, but smaller carriers exposed to the spot market have seen rates up into the double-digits, coupled with higher fuel prices, and declining volumes

Adamo said that flatbed rates are holding up, adding that based on short-term data there is always a dip around this time of year, for the next few weeks, with some inflationary pressures pertaining to building materials and also housing starts. And should oil continue to rise, he said that could bump up rates as well.  He also noted that things are more segmented and industry-dependent for flatbed compared to dry van.