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LIKE TRACKING A HURRICANE

I’m sure we’ve all felt like we were in a bad storm over the past few years when it comes to the freight market, and particularly, shipping rates. As we’re now into a new year, shippers and brokers are looking at their 12-month rate forecasts and wondering how things will look come December ‘24. It’s relatively easy to project for the first few months, even the first quarter, but as you get further and further away from when you send those projections to your finance team, the level of angst goes up.  

Figure 1.1 will hopefully help in assessing if your year will have a good outcome, or if there may be reason to look at your contingency plan. As we typically see in the first months of a calendar year (setting aside what we saw in 2021), rates are usually at their lowest point due to volume being restrained. Using the current rates for dry van freight, you can see the projections are for upward movement in rates as we go through the year, with rates pushing past $2.30 per mile as we close out 2024. However, as with any forecast or projection, there is always that “margin of error”.  

If the projected supply and demand balance is more volatile, it’s possible to see freight rates pushing $0.50-$0.60 per mile higher. On the opposite end, if demand for freight is muted, and the carrier churn rate levels out or, dare I say, we see an increase in capacity, freight rates could be well below $2.00 per mile.  

As with any major storm, it’s better to prepare and not need, than the other way around. As a shipper, boosting your carrier and broker base to give you options is always a prudent move.

CONSUMER SPENDING TO STEADY

There are some positive signs for 2024.  

The dreaded word “recession” that has been thrown around for seemingly all of 2023 doesn’t seem likely. The U.S. is poised for modest GDP growth and inflation shows signs of easing throughout 2024. There is also a strong likelihood we will see rate CUTS from the Fed this year.  

As we know, consumers are a big driver of freight activity. Look no further than the second half of 2020 and all of 2021 to see the impact consumers with disposable income can have on movement of goods. Figure 2.1 gives an indication that consumer buying will continue this year. As the ship steadies with inflation, that line will most likely head towards three percent at the end of the year, as consumers are finding dollars available to spend.  

There was a lot of pent-up demand for services that gobbled up U.S. consumer dollars over the past year plus, which lends credence to consumers looking to spend their dollars on things versus services. This will certainly be a shot in the arm for the freight-challenged industry we have experienced over the last 12 months.

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