2021 week 50 on-time delivery performance data is solid, reports ShipMatrix

Data recently issued by ShipMatrix, a subsidiary of Pittsburgh-based SJ Consulting showed that data from on-time performance (OTP) ranges, for week 50 of 2021 for major parcel carriers, including UPS, FedEx, and the United States Postal Service (USPS), was in similar range as previous weeks leading up to it that were comprised of Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday.

ShipMatrix President Satish Jindel said that this data is based on millions of packages shipped via UPS, FedEx, and USPS.

ShipMatrix reported the following for week 50 OTP metrics, from December 5-11:

• FedEx came in at 84.8% (below 93.9% from week 50 of 2020), UPS at 95.8% (below 96.1% from week 50 of 2020), and USPS at 95.0% (above 87.5% from week 50 of 2020), in line with week 49, from November 28-December 4, when FedEx was at 83.9%, UPS at 96.1%, and USPS at 95.5%; and
• data for performance measured for express service being on time if delivered by end of day and Ground within one extra day, for week 50, showed FedEx at 97.1%, UPS at 99.3%, and UPS at 98.5%, which were in line with week 49, which saw FedEx at 97.4%, UPS at 99.0%, and USPS at 98.6%

For the former data point, ShipMatrix noted that the annual OTP improvement for USPS stems from a major capacity expansion effort under the new Postmaster General, coupled with not getting deluged by diversion of parcels from capacity limits placed on large shippers by FedEx and UPS in peak of 2020.”

And for the latter data point, ShipMatrix said that had FedEx extended commitment times for lanes of 3+ days for the peak period, which was done UPS and USPS, the FedEx OTP, excluding adjustment for an extra day, would have topped 84.8%, for week 50.

What’s more, the firm observed that as more than 70% of parcels are comprised of holiday gifts and delivered to residences, the most notable way to evaluate carriers’ performance is to consider express service as on time of delivered by end of day and Ground within one extra day.

ShipMatrix said that while OTP levels have been strong over the course of the holiday peak period, to date, as more than 90 million parcels are being shipped on a daily basis, roughly 1.3 million parcels each day will take two or more extra days to be delivered.  

ShipMatrix observed that consumers should have placed orders by December 15 unless the retailer is shipping the items via faster express services.

“And, if the retailers are promising aggressive delivery dates with ground shipping, consumers should be cautious as the carriers have added extra time or day to their commitment times for the peak and may give false expectations for delivery,” it said.

The firm said that even with labor shortages still in effect, which are hindering the ability or parcel carriers to bring more people on board, this data reflects how carriers have maintained strong service levels related to capacity expansions going back to the 2020 peak, as there has since been an uptick in consumers making purchases at retail stores, coupled with an increase in goods being ordered online earlier.

Heading into the holiday season, there was a certain amount of trepidation as to whether holiday goods would be delivered in time, due to myriad supply chain-related issues. But as the weeks have gone by—and as this data shows—things appear to be moving along smoothly, for the most part.

“If you are expecting a delivery on the 14th of December and it comes on the 15th or 16th, how does that really affect your life,” asked ShipMatrix President Satish Jindel in a recent interview. “Now, don’t try to order things, two-to-four days before Christmas, because you are then causing and asking for trouble.”

Jindel added that as more people are making in-store purchases compared to a year ago, it should help to reduce any panic consumers have about getting gifts in timer, as long as they are ordered in a timely manner.

And he noted that last year there were many packages ordered online that were anywhere from two-to-five days late, with the improvements shown in this most recent batch of data.

The holiday delivery cut-off dates are were as follows for the major parcel carriers: FedEx, December 15; UPS, December 16; and UPS, December 15, for retail ground, and December 18, for Priority Mail.