Port Tracker has 2021 import volumes on a record-setting pace

United States retail container import levels continue to remain on track to finish 2021 with both the largest volume and fastest growth on record, amid pandemic-driven supply chain issues and disruptions, according to the most recent issue of the Global Port Tracker report, which was released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Consultants.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“This has been an unprecedented year,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “We’ve seen more disruption than ever before because of issues along every step of the supply chain and continued strong consumer demand, but we’re also seeing more cargo and faster growth than ever before. There are still ships to be unloaded and containers to be delivered, but everyone in the supply chain has worked overtime this year to try to overcome these challenges. For the most part, they have succeeded, and consumers will be able to find what they need for the holidays.”

The report explained that 2021 imports are expected to come in at 26 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), which would represent an 18.3% annual increase over 2020’s current record, at 22 million TEU (up 1.9% over 2019) and also mark the highest annual tally, for the report, since it initially commenced tracking imports in 2002. And the projected 18.3% annual increase would be up over 2010’s 16.7% annual gain, and current high, at a time when the economy was emerging from the Great Recession.

As an aside, the report said that even through imports do not directly correlate with sales, the expected record would be in tandem with its prediction of holiday retail sales—which it defines as for the months of November and December—rising 11.5% annually.

In its previous edition, Port Tracker observed that the combination of congestion and supply chain disruptions have remained intact going back to last year and into this year’s Peak Season, the report noted. But as the process leading up to Peak Season has been far from typical, it said, with myriad retailers bringing in holiday season merchandise much earlier than normal, in order to ensure enough inventory was stocked.

For October, the most recent month for which data is available, import volume—at 2.21 million TEU—rose 3.5% over September and were down 0.2% annually. May 2021 remains the all-time highest-volume month, at 2.33 million TEU).

November imports were expected to match October’s 2.21 million TEU, a 5.1% annual gain and still represent one of the five highest-volume months on record. And December was estimated to hit 2.2 million TEU, marking a 4.6% annual gain.

For the following months, Port Tracker issued the following projections:

• January, at 2.24 million TEU, for a 9% annual increase;
• February, at 2 million TEU, for a 7.3% annual increase;
• March, at 2.19 million TEU, for a 3.3% annual decrease; and
• April, at 2.2 million TEU, for a 2.2% annual increase

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that the supply chain continues to deal with myriad issues, including COVID-19, port and inland transportation congestion, a lack of labor at all points along the supply chain, storms in Asia, lack of electricity in China, and insufficient vessel capacity, among others.

“As landside transportation problems continue and a vast backlog of container ships builds on both coasts—estimated at well over 100 vessels—we are seeing year-over-year growth rates returning to normal patterns without the double-digit swings induced by the coming and going of pandemic lockdowns,” wrote Hackett.  “This does not mean volumes are dropping but rather that the economy and consumer demand have shifted toward a more normal state. We project that the levels of demand will stabilize and that we will have more seasonal patterns at a new quarterly level of 7 million to 7.5 million TEU over the coming 12 months for the tracked ports.”