Freight shipments and expenditures again see gains, at a reduced rate, notes Cass Freight Index

The most recent edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently published by Cass Information Systems, was somewhat mixed, for freight shipments and expenditures, in September.

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

The report’s shipment reading—at 1.184—eked out a 0.6% annual gain, well short of August’s 12.3% annual gain. And it was off 4.1% compared to August and was off 4.9% compared to August on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis.

The report’s author Tim Denoyer, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst, wrote the softening in September shipments is in line with other data sets, including rail volumes and employment, as well as some softness related to Hurricane/Tropical Storm Ida.

“This suggests some rebound in Q4, but the chip shortage also worsened in September, and that recovery will take longer,” wrote Denoyer. “Freight volumes also remain capacity-constrained by the armada of containerships at anchor off North American ports. Signs are emerging that rail network congestion is improving, which could help things unlimber a bit, but we think intermodal volumes will be limited by chassis for some time.”

September freight expenditures—at 3.818—increased 32.2% annually, which is off from August’s 42.2% annual gain, and were down 0.4% compared to August. The September reading was off 2.5% compared to August on a SA basis.

“If normal seasonality were to play out for the rest of this year, the full-year increase in this index would be 34% in 2021, after a 7% decline in 2020 and no change in 2019,” wrote Denoyer.

And he added that the 2.5% SA decline, from August to September, was due to lower volumes and higher rates. What’s more, on a two-year stacked basis, September shipments climbed up 33.8%, which Demoyer observed is more than explained by higher rates, as shipment volumes were down slightly on this basis.