Timing of a COVID-19 vaccine will fully test parcel networks

Amid many of the surveys, data, research, and reports that come into my e-mail inbox seemingly every minute, many of them have a common theme.

That theme, more often than not goes along the lines of various separate but related narratives, including: more people are shopping online now more than ever, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic; parcel networks are overcapacity so start your holiday shopping earlier to make sure your orders arrive when needed; and be prepared to pay more for delivery costs, among others.

While these things are all evident, there is something that has the certain ability to upend everything. And that is the timing of a potential COVID-19 vaccine. To be clear, the vaccine, whenever one is approved and gets the green light to be used and (hopefully) get this pandemic behind us, will be more than welcomed. But there is clearly an issue that comes in the form of timing.

That was made clear by Jerry Hempstead, president of Orlando-based Hempstead Consulting, on the “Code Red Freight Forecast” webcast, which was hosted this week by TranzAct Technologies, CSCMP and NASSTRAC.

Hempstead was quick to the point in explaining how, even though parcel networks are already operating in Peak Season-like conditions—and really have been going back to last spring—when a vaccine arrives, it will take precedence, for parcel carriers, over delivering your holiday orders to your doorstep. As it should, no question about it.

“When it hits, that is going to take priority for all of the carriers,” he said. “So the vaccine has to board first on the airplanes and the trucks. It is going to divert manpower. It is temperature-controlled…so one of the things you will hear the President mention is that the White House will deploy the military, whom has C-130s, and they can carry refrigerated trailers, but then once you get them to destination they have to be broken down and these refrigerated shipments, which are most likely packed in dry ice, have to be delivered to the distribution points for the vaccine.”

What’s more, many trucks will be needed to transport the vaccine on dry ice to pharmacies and supermarkets (with pharmacies), where the vaccine will be distributed from and where we will get out shots, he explained.

And this leads to the need for what Hempstead called “lots and lots of trucks and drivers” to deliver the vaccine to these aforementioned distribution points, which will, in turn, put a tremendous amount of stress on the parcel network.

“We don’t know when this will eventually happen, but once it does, things will move very quickly, when a vaccine is approved,” he said.

While there is a fair amount of uncertainty regarding when the vaccine will actually come, it is definitely certain that things will be intense, when it comes to getting vaccine shipments to where they need to get to in a timely manner. Get ready, it looks like it will be an interesting ride, to say the least.