National diesel average rises for the 15th consecutive week, reports EIA

The national average price per gallon of diesel gasoline headed up for the 15th consecutive week, for the week of February 15, according to data issued this week by the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration.

With a 7.5-cent increase, the national average came in at $2.876 per gallon, topping the 6.3-cent increase to $2.801, for the week of February 8. And this week’s tally also represents the single highest national average, for the second straight week. Prior to the week of February 8, the most recent high, for a weekly national average, was from the week of March 9, 2020, when it came in at $2.814, right before the COVID-19 pandemic took hold.

The 6.3-cent gain, for the week of February 8, was preceded by a 2.2-cent gain, to $2.738, following recent gains of: $0.02 cents, to $2.716, for the week of January 25; 2.6 cents, to $2.696, for the week of January 18; $0.03 cents, to $2.670, for the week of January 11; a 0.005-cent increase, to $2.64, for the week of January 4; a 1.6-cent increase, to $2.635, for the week of December 28; a $.06-cent increase, to $2.619, for the week of December 21; and a 3.3-cent increase, to $2.559, for the week of $2.559.

Going back to the week of November 9, which kicked off this 15-week stretch of increases, the national average has headed up a cumulative 49.3 cents. And the national average has been below the $3 per gallon mark since the week of February 2, when it posted an average of $2.956. 

On an annual basis, this week’s national average is down 1.4 cents, well below the annual spreads of 10.9 cents, for the week of February 8 and the 21.8-cent decrease, for the week of February 1 and also below the annual spreads of 29.4 cents and 34.1 cents, for the weeks ending January 25 and January 18, respectively.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil is currently trading at $59.61 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In tandem with the increases in diesel and oil prices are rig counts, which, while very weak at the moment, are restricting inventory levels and driving prices up, according to Tim Fiore, Chair of the ISM's Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“That is not really a growth profile, as you really want consumption and gallons per month going up and get the refineries operating again to the extent that they should be,” he explained. “Right now, they are restricting inventory, and that is driving the prices up. I don’t see oil and gas really coming back until people start commuting to work again, and business and leisure travel really come back. That is not until 2022. Maybe there will be an uptick in commuting in the fourth quarter.”

Compounding the ongoing run of weekly declines, the current national arctic freeze is impacting gas and home heating prices, which are expected to see more gains in the coming months, according to an NBC News report.

“Abnormal, below-freezing temperatures forced the shuttering of a number of key refineries in Texas, the biggest crude-producing state in the U.S., cutting off supply — just as demand slashed by the coronavirus pandemic started to recover for driving and flying following vaccine rollouts,” the report stated.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, which was published on February 9, the EIA is pegging the average price per gallon of diesel to come in at $2.70, with 2022 forecasted at $2.77. For WTI Crude, it is calling for the 2021 average to be $50.21, with 2022 at $51.56.