The impact of COVID-19 on logistics is never far from top of mind

Over the years, in this space, I have often endeavored to provide some sort of analysis, or summary, on the state of our freight transportation and logistics markets, at the mid-point of the year. Needless to say, this year is not a typical year, nor is it like any other year we have seen in our respective lifetimes.

While things are strange, confusing, uncertain, difficult, challenging, or whatever you want to call it, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remains top of mind, when it comes to assessing how things are going, as they relate to moving freight and supply chain and logistics operations.

When the COVID-19 pandemic truly took hold in mid-March, the almost immediate aftereffects were voluminous.

The first one was the near immediate shutdown of the economy, which saw millions of Americans lose their jobs, leaving them wondering about an uncertain future. That still remains the case. And with so many people dealing with unemployment, the other shoe to drop, so to speak, came in the form of a major decline in demand.

That is, and was, huge on so many levels, given that in an economy in which two-thirds of total economic activity is driven by consumer spending, the decline in economic output, as measured by various metrics—including consumer confidence, retail sales, manufacturing output, energy prices, imports, and, of course freight transportation volumes and tonnage—could be viewed as staggering or stunning.

That latter part has been well documented on this web site and in the pages of LM, so we will not rehash that here, but suffice to say the economic fallout across the board, coupled with logistics playbooks changing on the fly, could well serve to be a seminal moment for our industry.

Why? Well, for one thing, until there is an actual COVID-19 vaccine, it remains difficult to imagine things returning to normal, in a conventional way, any time soon. That is driven by many people now working from home, not really doing a lot of traveling, and being hesitant to “get out in the world” as they would in a normal setting.

What’s more, with so many people staying home, there has been, as to be expected, a major surge in e-commerce activity, with some estimates pegging non-store retail sales, which includes e-commerce, around 30%, at the moment, whereas in pre-pandemic times, that figure hovered around 10%, perhaps a little more.

And that has been reflected with e-commerce delivery networks, especially a few months back, struggling to keep up with what could be viewed as unprecedented levels of demand. Things have clearly gotten better on that front, due, in part, to the staggered re-opening of the U.S. economy, but it is not without its bumps in the road, too, in this new world of logistics.

When COVID-19 first took hold, it was widely reported that there was a huge run on essential items, like toilet paper, hand sanitizer, and groceries, with everyone staying at home and sheltering in place. That kept shippers and logistics and transportation services providers incredibly busy, to say the least, and showed those that may not have been in the know, the incredible importance and reach of logistics and supply chain operations.

And while certain sectors were working around the clock to get essential goods to consumers, other sectors, notably manufacturing and automotive, among others, more or less ground to a halt but are seeing upticks now. But with COVID-19 cases again on the rise that leads to the question of how sustainable are these recent gains? If you know, please do not hesitate to tell me.

While this is different from similar mid-year updates that have been offered up in this space in the past, it is where we are now. It really could be viewed as the uncertain present, with an unclear future. But regardless of the current state of things and the obvious lack of visibility we are all dealing with, I have confidence in our great freight transportation, logistics, and supply chain networks to help us all get back on the right road again, hopefully sooner than later.