Second quarter U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index shows solid growth

Freight shipment and spending levels in the second quarter remained on an upward trajectory, according to the most recent edition of the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, which was recently released by Minneapolis-based U.S. Bank.

This report, which was initially launched in the third quarter of 2017, is comprised of data on freight shipping volumes and spend on both a national and regional basis. The report’s data is based on the actual transaction payment date, highest-volume domestic freight modes of truckload and less-than-truckload and is seasonally- and calendar-adjusted.

Its historical data goes back to 2010, with a base point of 100, and its index point for each subsequent quarter marks that quarter’s volume in relation to the preceding quarter. U.S. Bank Freight Payment processes more than $23 billion in global freight payments for U.S. Bank’s corporate and federal government clients.

The report’s National Shipment Index, at 138.7 (2011=110.1), hit a new record-high and was up 1.2% compared to the first quarter and up 7.8% annually. This represented a mild decrease when compared to the 1.4% increase from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2018, as well as showing growth for the sixth consecutive quarter on both a sequential and annual basis.

The mild sequential gains in shipments are due, in part, to the ongoing driver shortage and the impact of electronic logging devices (ELD), which took effect late last year and have impacted capacity levels and availability against the backdrop of strong demand.

American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello, whose analysis and commentary is featured in the report, noted that these shipment levels are in line with the strong second quarter national GDP reading, which was 4.1, making it unsurprising that the report showed solid growth for both shipments and spend.

The report's National Spend Index, at 189.1 (2011=126.5) saw a 0.7% increase over the first quarter and a 24.4% annual improvement. This is the eighth quarter of sequential increases and the sixth quarter of annual gains. Costello said that the ongoing sequential and annual spend growth reflects a tight trucking market, which may be the tightest ever in the post-deregulation era.  

Addressing the gains in quarterly spend, Costello wrote: “It is quite simple-the economy remains strong, industry capacity is constrained for a host of reasons, and spending increases as a result. But like industry volumes, it should be expected that spending growth rates will begin to moderate in large part because year-over-year comparisons will become more difficult in the quarters ahead.”

U.S. Bank Freight Data Solutions Director Bobby Holland said in an interview with LM that both the second quarter freight shipment and spend data continue to tell a positive story, as they related to market conditions.

And, as the report pointed out, given the still-tight capacity levels in tandem with solid rate growth, future annual comparisons are likely to tail off in the future.

“It also has to do with that with shippers having a hard time securing capacity, costs are likely to go up…and the market is squeezing every bit of capacity it can, while current capacity levels are not expanding,” he said.

Looking at the second half of 2018, Costello said that the driver shortage and recently implemented tariffs could hinder growth.